On the eve of the Railway Industry Association’s Annual Conference (which starts on 6 November), new polling of 250 rail business leaders has been published by Savanta. It shows that almost half – 48 per cent – believe the industry will contract in the next year.
The survey was conducted between September and October on behalf of the Railway Industry Association (RIA). Whilst the results follow a turbulent year of political uncertainty, the survey was carried out before the Budget on 30 October, which confirmed a number of major rail projects, including HS2 from Old Oak Common to Euston. The Budget also committed the Government to publishing a long-term rolling stock pipeline, which would give greater confidence to businesses.
The key findings of the survey are:
• Only 26 per cent of respondents believe that the rail supply industry will grow in the next year, with 48 per cent saying it will contract. This is a slight improvement from last year’s score of 54 per cent.
• 46 per cent think their business will grow and 29 per cent say they will contract in the coming year. This is largely consistent with 2023 but is the lowest score of the last five years.
• As last year, 83 per cent think it likely that there will be a hiatus in rail work over the next year, for example due to the time taken to deliver Great British Railways-related rail reform, or uncertainty over enhancement or major projects budgets.
• The three main measures rail businesses will take in response to a hiatus in the coming year are freezing/slowing recruitment (51 per cent, up from 44 per cent in 2023), prioritising work outside the UK (51 per cent, up from 42 per cent in 2023), and pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK (35 per cent).
Commenting on the survey, Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the Railway Industry Association, said: “The conclusions of the survey reflect a second year of rail supply leaders being concerned about the outlook for the wider UK rail market and anxiety about their own business’s prospects more specifically.
“Over 80 per cent forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, with a detailed timeline for rail reform or firm commitments for the delivery of major projects still awaited. This uncertainty adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence fails to return.
“The results from the survey confirm RIA’s longstanding calls for more certainty from Government on which national, regional and local rail work – both track and train – it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.
“Ahead of RIA’s Annual Conference in London on 6-7 November, we call on the Government to set out a clear roadmap for rail investment as soon as possible, including plans for rail enhancements and rolling stock procurement and refurbishment. Visibility of these plans would provide rail suppliers with the certainty they need, ultimately helping to deliver the rail services customers – both passengers and freight – want and the value for money taxpayers expect. We hope the 2025 survey will show an uplift in confidence, following the Budget on 30 October this year, which seemed more positive about the prospects for both railway infrastructure and rolling stock pipelines.”
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