Improved infrastructure to boost economic growth across the UK and meet climate goals is both achievable and affordable if the right policy steps are taken now, according to the government’s independent advisers on infrastructure strategy.
The second National Infrastructure Assessment – a five yearly review conducted by the National Infrastructure Commission – sets out a programme of transformation for the country’s energy, transport and other key networks over the next 30 years.
Its recommendations in relation to transport include:
- Major public transport upgrades in England’s most congested cities to unlock economic growth
- An urgent and comprehensive review of rail priorities for the North and the Midlands following government’s recent decision on High Speed 2
- Better maintenance of existing roads and targeted enhancements to speed up journeys on underperforming parts of the national road network.
The Assessment stresses the constraints that urban congestion places on economic growth, and the likely increases in future transport demand within city regions. It calls for action to tackle road congestion and improve public transport, leading with investment of £22bn between 2028 and 2045 in mass transit schemes in the cities outside London.
The Commission proposes this is initially focused on places with the greatest likely capacity need and growth potential – Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds and Manchester and their city regions. With these four regions receiving around two thirds of the total, the remaining one third should be allocated to other cities, where a strong case can be made on the basis of connectivity or capacity. The report mentions there may be a case for investment to expand the reach of public transport networks in some large cities such as Liverpool and Sheffield, while further noting there is also likely to be a case for investment in fast growing smaller cities such as Coventry and Norwich.
To increase capacity sufficiently to meet future demand, the Assessment indicates that city regions benefiting from major new public transport schemes will also need to identify ways to reduce the volume of car journeys into their city centres, especially at peak times. The Commission is clear that the design and sequencing of such demand management schemes should be for local leaders to decide and are only likely to be appropriate once public transport options offer passengers a viable alternative to using private cars.
The Commission recommends that five year transport budgets should be devolved to all local authorities responsible for strategic transport, and that government should agree a long term funding settlement for London. This will help places develop locally led infrastructure strategies which complement housing and land use development, and help ensure that transport infrastructure is accessible for all groups in society.
The report stresses the need to accelerate the rollout of public charge points for electric vehicles to ensure that government’s expectation of 300,000 chargers by 2030 is met. This will require continued year-on-year grow of around 30 per cent for the next seven years. The Commission notes the importance of ensuring public charge points are spread across all regions of the country, to support every driver in making the switch.
The Assessment proposes increased funding for the maintenance of longer distance road and rail networks, with targeted enhancements to networks to improve underperforming routes between key locations. The Commission offers new analysis on where such routes lie, suggesting these are used as a starting point for discussions with local leaders and sub national transport bodies to develop a pipeline of future interurban road projects. The Commission recommends that by the end of 2026, government should develop an integrated strategy for interurban transport to frame the development of Control Period 8 for rail (2029-34) and Road Investment Strategy 4 (2030-35).
Given the uncertainties about the pace of the transition to electric vehicles and future traffic demand, the Commission proposes that government should establish a monitoring and review regime for its transport decarbonisation plans. This would help inform more responsive policy making if emissions from transport do not reduce as anticipated, including through the proposed interurban transport strategy.
Following government’s recent decision on High Speed 2 and noting the commitment to various alternative transport schemes, the Commission calls for a new long term strategy that sets out how rail improvements will address the capacity and connectivity challenges facing the North and Midlands. The Assessment proposes an urgent review of rail priorities in for regions, involving local leaders, to produce “a rigorously costed portfolio of schemes with clear delivery timescales.”
Among a range of cross-cutting recommendations, the Commission also recommends that public spending frameworks for infrastructure are reformed to encourage more effective project management. The Assessment calls for fixed multi-year budgets for major projects, where money can be moved between years to avoid the illusion that delay saves money; and for the largest projects to have their own ‘project expenditure limit’ to protect smaller projects that sit within the same government department.
The report draws on two years of analysis, expert engagement and public research, resulting in what Commission Chair Sir John Armitt labels “probably the most comprehensive assessment yet of the infrastructure costs associated with supporting regional growth and reaching net zero”.
The report is upfront about the need for significant public and private investment in infrastructure if the UK is to rebalance its economic geography, meet climate obligations, improve resilience and enhance the natural environment.
Transport constitutes the largest proportion of government investment in economic infrastructure, and the Commission recommends this should be held flat in real terms at an average of almost £28 billion per year between 2025 and 2040. This includes increasing investment in urban transport as a proportion of all transport spending from 40 per cent in 2025 to 50 per cent by 2040, reflecting the economic importance of cities, including a significant increase to fund the new public transport schemes in major cities.
Other sectors beyond transport, in particular energy, will rely on significant increases in private investment to meet future challenges. Attracting this investment to the UK in the face of global competition will require a new approach, says the Commission:
- Policy stability: setting out a clear plan and sticking to it, to lend certainty to investors and help build up supply chains
- Pro-investment regulation: clear guidance from government on priorities, investment ahead of need and business models to support emerging technologies
- Speeding up the planning system for major projects, particularly energy transmission schemes: with regularly updated National Policy Statements from government, strategic spatial planning, more effective sharing of environmental data and clearer community benefits in return for hosting key infrastructure.
The Assessment also sets out the likely impact of the Commission’s recommendations on households, where private investment is recouped through infrastructure service bills. It finds that the average household will save at least £1,000 per year by the mid 2030s compared to today, largely driven by the transition away from fossil fuels onto cheaper low carbon electricity.
Writing in the report’s foreword, Sir John Armitt, Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, said: “The good news is that modern, reliable infrastructure can support economic growth, help tackle climate change and enhance the natural environment.
“We stand at a pivotal moment in time, with the opportunity to make a major difference to this country’s future. But we need to get on with it.
“People often talk about infrastructure as the backbone of our economy: what our infrastructure needs now is the collective mettle to turn commitments into action that will reap rewards for decades to come.”
Government is expected to respond formally to the Assessment within 12 months.
Responding to the report, the Railway Industry Association (RIA) said the report comes as Department for Transport has also published new data this week which highlights passenger numbers are now close to averaging 100% of pre-Covid levels for the last six month period. DfT statistics show that national passenger levels – including the successful Elizabeth line and excluding the impact of rail strikes for April-September 2023 – has seen an average 98% of pre Covid levels.
Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of RIA, said: “These latest figures from the DfT make a mockery of the recent assertion that we don’t need more rail capacity with schemes like HS2 Phase 2 from Birmingham to Manchester. Indeed, passenger numbers today are more than 15% higher than when the business case for the full HS2 scheme was made and accepted in 2012.
“We are getting clear and sustained evidence this year that people have returned to rail in very healthy numbers post pandemic, with every likelihood this will continue to grow in the years ahead. About a third of the Elizabeth line passengers are new to rail demonstrating that if you provide a high-quality railway service people will use it. The National Infrastructure Assessment published today also supports the view that demand for urban public transport in the future will grow, with more capacity required to accommodate that growth.
“We urge politicians of all parties not to accept the excessively negative messages from some parts of the Government that UK rail is in decline. Rather, there needs to be more investment in major national transport infrastructure schemes not less, to deliver the capacity we’re going to need in the years ahead.”
Lord McLoughlin, Chair of Transport for the North, said: “We welcome this assessment from the National Infrastructure Commission and especially its recognition of the key role improved connectivity has to play in unlocking the potential of the North’s city-regions and towns.
“The evidence is clear, investing in the North’s transport system will make a difference for both residents and businesses, connecting people and places with opportunities and services. To realise this transformation, we must deliver on agreed priorities, and make it easier to do so. This updated Assessment by the National Infrastructure Commission gives confidence to our communities and will encourage the private sector to continue to invest in the North’s success. In this way we are to deliver economic growth that is sustainable and inclusive for the longer term to transform the North.”
APM’s Head of Policy and Public Affairs, Andrew Baldwin said: “The UK faces a multitude of challenges, which are playing out against a backdrop of accelerating change. Economic volatility, political uncertainty and the threat of climate change make the need for modern, reliable transport infrastructure more important than ever.
“Major infrastructure projects, when delivered well, can provide economic, social and environmental benefits. In order to succeed however, such projects require stability. The Second National Infrastructure Assessment demonstrates that its core recommendations will need to be delivered through projects, but also points out that ‘part of the solution also comes from having greater policy stability and long term plans.’ It is possible for projects to be rescoped and assessed and still succeed. When projects are scrapped or face multiple significant changes, this severely impacts – or completely negates – their ability to meet the intended need.
“Project success is also dependent on skilled professionals. Indeed, the NIC report makes it clear that delivering major projects requires ‘strong project management and delivery skills’. APM echoes this view. There is strong appetite among project professionals to develop their skills – evidenced by the fact that more people sat APM exams between April 2022 and March 2023 than in any previous year. This suggests there is a huge opportunity for government to invest in professionalisation of project management in transport.
“But that isn’t all that is needed. There is a further opportunity to focus the civil service more on policy delivery, not just policy development. It is not just about having the right skills in place; it is about having the right people as well. We hope Lord Maude’s imminent review into Civil Service governance and accountability will support this. Increased resource and development of the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) and departmental project teams will ensure the recommendations in the NIC’s report can be delivered in full.”
Maria Machancoses, Chief Executive of Midlands Connect, said: “The publication of this report by the NIC is very timely and welcome. We echo calls by the commission for an urgent and comprehensive review of rail priorities for the North and the Midlands following government’s recent decision on High Speed 2 and the introduction of Network North.
“We also welcome proposals for the development of an Integrated strategy for interurban transport and strongly believe this overall strategy should be underpinned by the Strategic Transport Plans being developed by Sub-national Transport bodies across the country including that of Midlands Connect.
“During 2023, Midlands Connect alongside 13 other Local Authorities and the private sector secured £39.3m Government support towards the delivery of 17,461 new public EV charging points across the Midlands (by the end of 2025). This is why we recognise NIC proposals for accelerating the delivery of EV charging infrastructure across all parts of the nation.
“Now, we must work with Government to take forward the recommendations set out in this report – addressing the long-standing inequalities across the country, and our collective net zero and climate change commitments. At Midlands Connect we stand ready to address them head on.”
Norman Baker from Campaign for Better Transport said: “Sir John is absolutely right in his call to stop the sale of land acquired for HS2. It would be wrong of the Government to sell it before we understand the full implication of scrapping the HS2 link to Manchester.”
“Selling this land will stunt the growth of rail freight and place severe restrictions on future freight movements. This sale should be paused until after the general election next year when the next government can revisit ideas on how to ease congestion on the West Coast main line.”
